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from 1953...

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On Nov. 23, 1953 an F-89 interceptor was chasing a UFO over Lake Superior when, according to radar operators, the two blips on the screen seemed to merge into one which then blinked off the screen. The jet and its pilot, Lt. Felix Moncla, were gone without a trace. The Air Force file on the vanishing, for some reason, contains just two pages. One of them is a page from a book debunking UFO theories.

This education could be accomplished by mass media such as television, motion pictures, popular articles," the CIA panel's report said. It went on to suggest using "psychologists familiar with mass psychology" to help assemble the program and even wondered if Walt Disney Studios might be interested in producing anti-UFO cartoons.

www.conspire.com/ds/ufochap.html

Some of the best scientific minds in the country were stumped when a slender, dark-haired young man chalked on the blackboard this equation:

N equals R FP NE FL FI, FC L

The speaker was Dr. Carl Sagan, a 28 year old assistant professor of astronomy at Harvard University.
His audience consisted of several hundred members of the American Rocket Society, gathered for his luncheon address.
The equation was his way of expressing the mathematical probability that intelligent beings from outer space have visited earth.
Sagan soberly explained that in his equation N stands for the number of advanced civilizations in the universe possessing the capability of interstellar communication.
R is the mean rate of star formation averaged over the lifetime of the galaxy.
FP is the fraction of stars with planetary systems.
NE is the mean number of planets in each system with environments favorable for the origin of life.
FL is the fraction of such inhabited planets on which intelligent life with manipulative abilities rises during the lifetime of the local sun.
FC is the fraction of planets populated by intelligent beings on which an advanced technical civilization rises.
And L is the lifetime of this technical civilization.
Sagan said information in his formula is based on current estimates by astronomers. In making calculations, he assigned each symbol an arbitrary numerical value.
As expressed in numbers, Sagan said, the formula means that at least 1 million of the 100 billion stars in our Milky Way galaxy have planets which have developed civilizations capable of travel between the stars.

www.conspire.com/sagan.html

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